State-space ARIMA for supply-chain forecasting

ARIMA is seldom used in supply chains in practice. There are several reasons, not the least of which is the small sample size of available data, which restricts the usage of the model. Keeping in mind this restriction, we discuss in this paper a state-space ARIMA model with a single source of error and show how it can be efficiently used in the supply-chain context, especially in cases when only two seasonal cycles of data are available. We propose a new order selection algorithm for the model and compare its performance with the conventional ARIMA on real data. We show that the proposed model performs well in terms of both accuracy and computational time in comparison with other ARIMA implementations, which makes it efficient in the supply-chain context.     

A bibliometric measure of translational science

Scientometrics - Science funders are increasingly requiring evidence of the broader impacts of even basic research. Initiatives such as NIH’s CTSA program are designed to shift the research...     

Deliberately Losing Control of C−H Activation Processes in the Design of Small-Molecule-Fragment Arrays Targeting Peroxisomal Metabolism

Combined photochemical arylation, “nuisance effect” (S_NAr) reaction sequences have been employed in the design of small arrays for immediate deployment in medium-throughput X-ray protein–ligand structure determination. Reactions were deliberately allowed to run “out of control” in terms of selectivity; for example the ortho-arylation of 2-phenylpyridine gave five products resulting from mono- and bisarylations combined with S_NAr processes. As a result, a number of crystallographic hits against NUDT7, a key peroxisomal CoA ester hydrolase, have been identified.